Gravity vs Bouncebackability

gravity 1. The force that attracts a body towards the centre of the earth, or towards any other physical body having mass. (Sir Isaac Newton, 1655)

bouncebackability 1. The capacity to recover quickly after a setback. (Iain Dowie, 2004)

The sun is setting on the battlefield and after a tight relegation battle the dead are now being separated from the wounded. Some supporters will be surprised by their fate and some relieved that the poison has finally taken hold but nobody will be relishing the summer ahead, World Cup or not. Will they bounce straight back or will they be one of the few teams who fall through the leagues like Wolves or worse, Portsmouth? The advantage from the plump parachute payments should be more than sufficient to ensure their swift return but in the last ten years only six teams relegated from the Premier League have returned the following year, only seven within two. So what chance do the three likely relegated teams have of returning to the Premier League?

Fulham are in trouble and this has been obvious from the start of the season. Their tactical set-up was far too naive for a manager as astute and experienced as Martin Jol, it reeked of a man already looking for an exit. A front four of luxury players Kasami, Taarabt, Ruiz and Berbatov protected by the aging Sidwell and Parker who tenacious and committed as they both are will never be able to sustain that support for ninety minutes. That front four were supplemented by the also aging Duff, the ineffective Bent, the inexperienced but promising Kacaniklic and Dejagh. It appeared that Jol’s squad was composed of either aging workers or glamorous mannequins. When games have gone well it appears inspired but that has been rare this season and that front four have nothing to offer the team when they come under pressure.

I feel a slight sympathy for the owner, the fantastically moustachioed, Shahid Khan. From a distance this constant firing of managers (and employment of former managers as consultants) seems like the meddling hands of one of those bad chairmen that our parents warned us all about, but each decision in isolation was probably correct and possibly could have paid off. The sacking of Jol, the appointment of one of the most sought-after coaches, Rene Meulensteen as manager, the employment of Curbishley and Wilkins to aid him, the sacking of Meulensteen and his experienced cohorts and finally the appointment of Felix Magath, a man renowned in the Bundesliga for his survival instincts: each decision was logical but not one of them have paid off. They acted in the January transfer window bringing in Kvist, Holtby and Mitroglou, which looked like it might address some of the problems, but they have hardly played, the latter embarrassing so. Mitroglou has played for Greece sandwiched inbetween periods where Magath has deemed him unfit to play for Fulham, strange treatment for your record signing. 

For me they are going down and by the smile on Magath’s Penfold-like face he won’t be joining them. So which players will join him? Bent will go back to Aston Villa which will please everyone except his parent club, Kvist & Holtby will return too and I would presume Mitroglou to leave at a disappointing loss. Stekelenberg and Kasami are too good to fall out of the top flight and will find admirers. There are a number of senior players; Riise, Parker, Sidwell, Duff and Karagounis that will decide to either drop down or retire, so what are Fulham left with? Their wage bill is sizeable comparative to the quality within it but the players rising from the academy could be imperative to their return; Moussa Dembele, Dan Burn and Patrick Roberts have all had some experience in the Premier League this season to develop their potential. If Fulham can balance the impressive talent produced or developed by their academy with an experienced spine and they invest their parachute payments wisely I think they will return if not next season then the one after once they have rebuilt. Khan, as badly as he has looked this year, appears to want the best for the club and I believe he will be patient with the new manager and the timescale for their return to the table with the golden knives and forks. Who do they need? Like most relegated clubs Fulham need a manager who not only understands the division but has ambition and perspiration enough to want to reach higher.  Someone like Malky Mackay would be a good choice for me and I think he would cherish a club where he has the opportunity to build something with a sense of longevity. Aside from this season Fulham have been a stable club and the trip to the second tier may well be what they need to rid themselves of the lack of balance that has caused their downfall.

Sunderland are a mess. I am sure Paolo Di Canio will bear much of the blame for the aftershock of his short but disastrous reign and Gus Poyet certainly has lost the golden paint from his halo, but the feet where most of the blame should lay are those of Roberto Di Fanti. In his only full window as Director of Football he bought in thirteen signings, of whom only Borini, Mannone, Sung-Yeung, Altidore  and Dossena had Premier League experience, none with any degree of success and of the new boys only Giaccherini had any pedigree. What message is being sent out to the existing players when thirteen new players are being brought in? That they aren’t good enough. Of those new signings only Mannone, Sung-Yeung, Borini and Giaccherini have shown flashes of talent this season. A further five signings were made during the January window, how much of an involvement Di Fanti had is unclear as he was relieved of his duty during the window but they certainly feel more like Poyet signings, four Spanish speakers and one from the Championship.

It has been an incredibly frustrating year for the Black Cats’ supporters with victories over Newcastle (twice), Southampton, Chelsea, Everton, Manchester United, Manchester City and a League Cup Final trip to Wembley where they outplayed the latter and yet they languish at the bottom with such a lack of confidence that no one is mentioning their two games in hand. Look at the reaction to their fine for fielding of an ineligible player Ji Dong-Won, not once but five times. Why aren’t the clubs around them petitioning for a points deduction? If this was happening at the top of the league you can be sure Mourinho and his rivals would have much to say on the matter. It appears that the clubs around them aren’t fearful of their survival.

So where do they stand for next season? Poyet’s position depends on himself and how difficult he views the year ahead of him. His days of being linked to every Premier League vacancy or near-vacancy will come to an end now and perhaps the drop in division, to one that he knows well, could help to rebuild his reputation and maybe any confidence he has lost too. Hopefully they will be able to move on much of the debris that has landed at their club over the last two windows, although unfortunately Borini & Sung Yeung will return to their parent clubs with glee and Giaccherini will find a club more suited to his quality, more than likely back in Serie A. Some of the better players Johnson, Fletcher and Gardner should find other Premier League clubs even if they are only the ones passing Sunderland on the way up. If they can keep hold of Brown, Bridcutt, Colback, Larsson, Cattermole, Mannone and Wickham they could have a good chance of returning but there is so much rebuilding to be done. It is going to be another big, painful summer for the Black Cats, they need to remove many and bring in a few more-suited to the job in hand, hopefully new Sporting Director, Lee Congerton will prove more adept to the role than his predecessor. Poyet’s decision will tell us much about him and I hope he stays to clear the mess that this club has become. This is not the first time that Sunderland have gone down with a team of high wages & little quality or identity but it is a necessary pain to rejuvenate and the chairman Ellis Short needs to ensure the rebuild of his team is done slowly and with consideration.

This should have been a season of celebration for Cardiff and although their fans didn’t expect to survive it they at least expected to enjoy it. Alas their first season in the top flight since 1962 has lived under the shadow of their owner Vincent Tan and the soap opera he has orchestrated. After last year’s abolition of the Bluebird and their blue shirts the dejected supporters must have believed their punishment from this Faustian pact had already been paid but unfortunately they are only paying off the interest. Malky Mackay was sufficiently backed in the summer transfer window Cornelius, Caulker and Medel were bought for a combined total of £25million but like a spoilt child money was the only love he received. His trusted Director of Football, Iain Moody, was unceremoniously dumped and replaced by a twenty three year old friend of Tan’s son, who had spent the summer on work experience painting the stadium wall. (Even now less than six months later I still had to check that I hadn’t dreamed that.) If this was part of Tan’s plan to destabilise Mackay and turn the support away from him, it didn’t work. The fans sung their manager’s name, holding aloft anti-Tan banners and it wasn’t as if the results were bad enough to use as an excuse.  After a number of open threats Mackay was sacked in December with an average of 0.9 points per game and was replaced with the baby-faced assassin Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, a man whose name was rumoured as many times as Poyet’s whenever a manager’s position became vulnerable. Solskjaer had resisted the sirens of the Premier League for years, waiting for the right appointment and more specifically he had added- the right owner.

Andreas Cornelius, held up by Tan as the downfall of Mackay and Moody’s reign was sold in the January window for what Cardiff claim was in excess of a £8.5million loss. The promising Zaha and Fabio were brought in from Manchester United, Kenwyne Jones in a swap deal with the recently arrived Odemwingie and three Norwegians. The transfers, aside from Mats Moller Daehli, have made no positive impact; in fact Fabio seems to be on a mission to single-handedly sink them. They will go down this year, not because of Malkay, whose record is still better than Solskjaer’s 0.62 points per game, not even because of Solskjaer who although he still seems unaware of his first choice line-up or formation is at least willing to try and resolve it. The team will go down because the players, coaching staff and even the fans don’t want to be part of Tan’s project. He has no idea of the embarrassment he forces upon them, or perhaps he doesn’t care. Any victory Tan will proclaim as down to his approach, which will only fuel his fire further.

So what will next year bring? It depends on how big an explosion Tan creates. There are players who will be in demand; Mutch, Taylor, Noone, Wittingham, Caulker, Daehli and Medel will receive offers but Medel is the only definite to move on. If Cardiff can keep the bulk of these players and Solskjaer, whilst keeping Tan distracted on one of his other businesses there is the possibility that they could return, but we know as we read this that none of it will happen. Tan will interfere, sack Solskjaer and the better players will scuttle away as fast as they can. Unfortunately the supporters aren’t so lucky, all they can do is wait until Tan, like all petulant children, gets bored and finds a new toy.

The five teams (Birmingham achieved it twice) that have returned immediately to the Premier League in the last ten years mostly had the same plan; reduce the wage bill of the Mark Vidukas, Kieron Dyers and Matt Upsons (twice) of the world and hold on to the talented youngsters & those who are ambitious and hardworking enough to make the return. The Championship is a difficult league, a marathon where a winning streak of a few games is enough to elevate you several positions. The money will be helpful but as many clubs have found does not bring success on its own. This is the perfect opportunity for these three clubs to streamline their playing staff, cut the wages of those who do not understand what it means to wear their shirt and to promote those players deemed too inexperienced for this year’s Premier League campaign. Most importantly they must show unity, everyone pulling in the same direction. A slight exception would be 2009/10’s Newcastle United managed under Chris Hughton at the height of Mike Ashley’s poorly advised antics but that success was due to the players performing to spite him; a different form of unity that  perhaps Cardiff can hope to emulate. Each of these teams, no matter how badly they have appeared this season, have a chance to return. Relegation need not be a negative, as Epictetus the Greek philosopher once said ‘It’s not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters.’ I wish them all the best.