The Neutral's Choice

On 26th May 1999 in a small flat above a shoe shop in the Shires a Crystal Palace fan, a Spurs fan and an Aston Villa fan huddled onto a tatty old sofa to watch a football game containing neither of their teams and we had all left our respective jobs early to race home for the match. For this generation robbed by the Heysel Tragedy this was our first experience of an English team in the final of Europe's top competition. None of us had any affinity with Manchester United and yet as the match progressed our support grew more passionate. I arrived late with Bayern Munich already a goal up and with Keane and Scholes suspended for the game the task looked impossible. We shouldn't have cared but we kept screaming them on. By the time Sheringham scored we were so riled that one of our party left the flat screaming, running around the car park returning just in time to see Solskjaer score the winner, to which he promptly turned around and ran back outside. We clapped and cheered their victory knowing that tomorrow we would not share in any of the victory or have any affection for the players and neither did we want to.

For many this moment would come again in Istanbul in 2005 when Liverpool came from three down to defeat AC Milan and claim an unlikely fifth European crown. I on the other hand was stuck in a technical rehearsal for the opening of my play and missed it in its entirety. We sulked through the rehearsal aware that we were missing this massive occasion. I turned on the television when I returned to see Liverpool celebrating in the semi-circle and couldn't believe the spectacle I had missed. 

The 2006 Arsenal- Barcelona final left me a little disinterested, as did the English domination of the final of 2009 and Chelsea's penalty victory of 2012. Why has this desire to see English teams win in Europe deserted me? Am I unable to wish other London clubs good fortune? Or has football developed in such a way during the last ten years that emotion can only be felt toward your own club?

I cannot understand supporters whose hate outweighs their love; Chelsea fans singing 'We hate Tottenham' and its anti-Semitic relatives throughout games not featuring Spurs are an example of this. I have heard Spurs fans claiming that they would rather lose a game if it was detrimental to Arsenal. I am sure this is consistent throughout the country between varying rivalries. When Arsenal scored their decisive penalty against Hull in the FA Cup semi-final my three year old son stormed out of the room in a huff. I later learned that an Arsenal fan in the park had teased him by singing 'We hate Tottenham' hours before. Although very disappointing it is perhaps the stroppy emotional reaction expected of a three year old. Why can't adults who behave in such a fashion realise how ridiculous their behaviour seems to others. When did hate become a barometer of how much you support your team? I've listened to many fan podcasts where in order to display their loyalty they proudly talk how they couldn't wear clothes the colour of their rivals or even have friends who support their teams. Seriously are you proud of that? Are you aware you are only punishing yourself? No one else cares that you are doing it. I've heard of fans who state that if their team isn't playing they aren't interested in watching football, that they find football boring without their team involved. Whilst strange I appreciate they have that prerogative. But if you truly love your team sing songs about them not your rivals, clap your players not boo them, if you love them show it.

I am unsure whether this plastic devotion is something new or just that my awareness of it has increased in the last decade but it appears evident that the word neutral has become dirty as a by-product. We are all neutrals, like it or not, that is the position we are in. You support your team and are neutral in every other respect. When two teams play I am sure somewhere in your brain a decision is being calculated as to who you would rather win. It doesn't affect your devotion for your team, it’s a natural process of the brain. I love Maltesers but if a shop only has a Twix and a Drifter I will make a decision on which I prefer (controversially Drifter) but it doesn't affect my love for Maltesers.

I presume my personal waning of support through the aforementioned campaigns is due to the nature of the teams playing and perhaps a saturation of a previously rare occasion. Fulham and Middlesbrough are teams I have no affiliation with but greatly enjoyed their runs in Europe and I am aware that many neutrals enjoyed Spurs run in the Champions League. These triumphs are unexpected yet deserved so as neutrals we warm to the narrative. That is what football is, when we break it down to its bare bones. It’s an unpredictable spoiler-free story and the story of the underdog is far more attractive than that of the oil tycoon who conquers all in his way. Who wants to watch the latter as a piece of narrative? Where is the drama? The most exciting football is never the obvious, its always the surprise or the well-deserved. It is entertainment at its most primal form.

This year we are faced with a question. For the first time in many years we are contemplating the last three games of the season with three possible champions. Unless you are a Liverpool, Chelsea or Manchester City supporter there is a choice- who would you prefer to win the Premier League? Glen Johnson recently stated that the neutrals would want to see Liverpool win it. Was he right?

Let us break down the narrative, for this is I believe what helps us make our decision. This decision is of course flavoured with personal preference, local rivalries, favourite players, associations with the place but in basic terms the narratives are as follows:

Manchester City have bought success but it could be argued that unlike other clubs in similar positions they have grafted to deserve some of that fortune. The supporters stayed loyal and in great numbers as the club nosedived into the third tier and it was hard to begrudge them that first FA Cup and Championship, but that narrative has changed since it was obtained. They appear to have worked to a plan and have not yet fallen foul of the glory supporters that blight successful teams. The team have many great players but are often suffocated by inconsistency. The British players are peripheral and too many prospective talents have been lost to this machine; Sturridge, Richards, Johnson, Sinclair, Rodwell, only Milner and Hart play with any frequency and there is no trust at all in the once solid Lescott.

Chelsea are still struggling to shake off the stench of Roman's money. They, perhaps fairly, have shouldered the blame for the inflation of the game into this juggernaut that no longer needs its fan's bottoms on its seats. They have often been without a plan; managers and players discarded at the slightest impulsive whimper only for them to achieve success elsewhere. They have a strong but aging English spine with Lampard, Terry and the lately unwanted Cole but the latter two are indicative of the image the club projects to the world. They are abrasive and arrogant, a perfect match for their current manager. That aside they are starting to build a very impressive team, the purchase of Matic, although systematic of their failings, was an exceptional piece of business from Mourinho. It was their problem position and now resolved this young team will only improve next year, if they are given that time.

Liverpool have suffered a long agonising fall from grace. For a team who dominated England and Europe through the 70s and 80s to wait twenty four years for a championship is unthinkable. Under Benitez they challenged and the European Cup was a beautiful distraction but ultimately they watched in vain as their fierce rivals Manchester United overtook their record league titles. Now they have returned as contenders. From seventh last year their British coach has developed and improved many of his squad, each one a marked improvement on last season, even the already outstanding Suarez. The team is made up of British players; Johnson, Flanagan, Henderson, Allen, Gerrard, Sterling and Sturridge and plays with such fluid movement and excitement that it is easy to overlook the often comedic defending. There is also the timing of the 25th anniversary of the Hillsborough Tragedy which increases the emotional impact of this title push enormously. Finally there is the loyalty of Stevie Gerrard. Granted there were a few days in his seventeen year professional career in which he pondered the idea of trying to further his career but his loyalty has never been in question. He has for many years been too good for that team and finally as his career is on its final leg he finally has a team around him capable of rewarding his loyalty.

I am sure Everton and Manchester United supporters will disagree but for the remaining neutrals amongst us the narrative of Liverpool is a feel-good Jerry Maguire type film, where we stumble toward the sickly sweet ending but wouldn't want it any other way.

Next year though is a different matter.

Gravity vs Bouncebackability

gravity 1. The force that attracts a body towards the centre of the earth, or towards any other physical body having mass. (Sir Isaac Newton, 1655)

bouncebackability 1. The capacity to recover quickly after a setback. (Iain Dowie, 2004)

The sun is setting on the battlefield and after a tight relegation battle the dead are now being separated from the wounded. Some supporters will be surprised by their fate and some relieved that the poison has finally taken hold but nobody will be relishing the summer ahead, World Cup or not. Will they bounce straight back or will they be one of the few teams who fall through the leagues like Wolves or worse, Portsmouth? The advantage from the plump parachute payments should be more than sufficient to ensure their swift return but in the last ten years only six teams relegated from the Premier League have returned the following year, only seven within two. So what chance do the three likely relegated teams have of returning to the Premier League?

Fulham are in trouble and this has been obvious from the start of the season. Their tactical set-up was far too naive for a manager as astute and experienced as Martin Jol, it reeked of a man already looking for an exit. A front four of luxury players Kasami, Taarabt, Ruiz and Berbatov protected by the aging Sidwell and Parker who tenacious and committed as they both are will never be able to sustain that support for ninety minutes. That front four were supplemented by the also aging Duff, the ineffective Bent, the inexperienced but promising Kacaniklic and Dejagh. It appeared that Jol’s squad was composed of either aging workers or glamorous mannequins. When games have gone well it appears inspired but that has been rare this season and that front four have nothing to offer the team when they come under pressure.

I feel a slight sympathy for the owner, the fantastically moustachioed, Shahid Khan. From a distance this constant firing of managers (and employment of former managers as consultants) seems like the meddling hands of one of those bad chairmen that our parents warned us all about, but each decision in isolation was probably correct and possibly could have paid off. The sacking of Jol, the appointment of one of the most sought-after coaches, Rene Meulensteen as manager, the employment of Curbishley and Wilkins to aid him, the sacking of Meulensteen and his experienced cohorts and finally the appointment of Felix Magath, a man renowned in the Bundesliga for his survival instincts: each decision was logical but not one of them have paid off. They acted in the January transfer window bringing in Kvist, Holtby and Mitroglou, which looked like it might address some of the problems, but they have hardly played, the latter embarrassing so. Mitroglou has played for Greece sandwiched inbetween periods where Magath has deemed him unfit to play for Fulham, strange treatment for your record signing. 

For me they are going down and by the smile on Magath’s Penfold-like face he won’t be joining them. So which players will join him? Bent will go back to Aston Villa which will please everyone except his parent club, Kvist & Holtby will return too and I would presume Mitroglou to leave at a disappointing loss. Stekelenberg and Kasami are too good to fall out of the top flight and will find admirers. There are a number of senior players; Riise, Parker, Sidwell, Duff and Karagounis that will decide to either drop down or retire, so what are Fulham left with? Their wage bill is sizeable comparative to the quality within it but the players rising from the academy could be imperative to their return; Moussa Dembele, Dan Burn and Patrick Roberts have all had some experience in the Premier League this season to develop their potential. If Fulham can balance the impressive talent produced or developed by their academy with an experienced spine and they invest their parachute payments wisely I think they will return if not next season then the one after once they have rebuilt. Khan, as badly as he has looked this year, appears to want the best for the club and I believe he will be patient with the new manager and the timescale for their return to the table with the golden knives and forks. Who do they need? Like most relegated clubs Fulham need a manager who not only understands the division but has ambition and perspiration enough to want to reach higher.  Someone like Malky Mackay would be a good choice for me and I think he would cherish a club where he has the opportunity to build something with a sense of longevity. Aside from this season Fulham have been a stable club and the trip to the second tier may well be what they need to rid themselves of the lack of balance that has caused their downfall.

Sunderland are a mess. I am sure Paolo Di Canio will bear much of the blame for the aftershock of his short but disastrous reign and Gus Poyet certainly has lost the golden paint from his halo, but the feet where most of the blame should lay are those of Roberto Di Fanti. In his only full window as Director of Football he bought in thirteen signings, of whom only Borini, Mannone, Sung-Yeung, Altidore  and Dossena had Premier League experience, none with any degree of success and of the new boys only Giaccherini had any pedigree. What message is being sent out to the existing players when thirteen new players are being brought in? That they aren’t good enough. Of those new signings only Mannone, Sung-Yeung, Borini and Giaccherini have shown flashes of talent this season. A further five signings were made during the January window, how much of an involvement Di Fanti had is unclear as he was relieved of his duty during the window but they certainly feel more like Poyet signings, four Spanish speakers and one from the Championship.

It has been an incredibly frustrating year for the Black Cats’ supporters with victories over Newcastle (twice), Southampton, Chelsea, Everton, Manchester United, Manchester City and a League Cup Final trip to Wembley where they outplayed the latter and yet they languish at the bottom with such a lack of confidence that no one is mentioning their two games in hand. Look at the reaction to their fine for fielding of an ineligible player Ji Dong-Won, not once but five times. Why aren’t the clubs around them petitioning for a points deduction? If this was happening at the top of the league you can be sure Mourinho and his rivals would have much to say on the matter. It appears that the clubs around them aren’t fearful of their survival.

So where do they stand for next season? Poyet’s position depends on himself and how difficult he views the year ahead of him. His days of being linked to every Premier League vacancy or near-vacancy will come to an end now and perhaps the drop in division, to one that he knows well, could help to rebuild his reputation and maybe any confidence he has lost too. Hopefully they will be able to move on much of the debris that has landed at their club over the last two windows, although unfortunately Borini & Sung Yeung will return to their parent clubs with glee and Giaccherini will find a club more suited to his quality, more than likely back in Serie A. Some of the better players Johnson, Fletcher and Gardner should find other Premier League clubs even if they are only the ones passing Sunderland on the way up. If they can keep hold of Brown, Bridcutt, Colback, Larsson, Cattermole, Mannone and Wickham they could have a good chance of returning but there is so much rebuilding to be done. It is going to be another big, painful summer for the Black Cats, they need to remove many and bring in a few more-suited to the job in hand, hopefully new Sporting Director, Lee Congerton will prove more adept to the role than his predecessor. Poyet’s decision will tell us much about him and I hope he stays to clear the mess that this club has become. This is not the first time that Sunderland have gone down with a team of high wages & little quality or identity but it is a necessary pain to rejuvenate and the chairman Ellis Short needs to ensure the rebuild of his team is done slowly and with consideration.

This should have been a season of celebration for Cardiff and although their fans didn’t expect to survive it they at least expected to enjoy it. Alas their first season in the top flight since 1962 has lived under the shadow of their owner Vincent Tan and the soap opera he has orchestrated. After last year’s abolition of the Bluebird and their blue shirts the dejected supporters must have believed their punishment from this Faustian pact had already been paid but unfortunately they are only paying off the interest. Malky Mackay was sufficiently backed in the summer transfer window Cornelius, Caulker and Medel were bought for a combined total of £25million but like a spoilt child money was the only love he received. His trusted Director of Football, Iain Moody, was unceremoniously dumped and replaced by a twenty three year old friend of Tan’s son, who had spent the summer on work experience painting the stadium wall. (Even now less than six months later I still had to check that I hadn’t dreamed that.) If this was part of Tan’s plan to destabilise Mackay and turn the support away from him, it didn’t work. The fans sung their manager’s name, holding aloft anti-Tan banners and it wasn’t as if the results were bad enough to use as an excuse.  After a number of open threats Mackay was sacked in December with an average of 0.9 points per game and was replaced with the baby-faced assassin Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, a man whose name was rumoured as many times as Poyet’s whenever a manager’s position became vulnerable. Solskjaer had resisted the sirens of the Premier League for years, waiting for the right appointment and more specifically he had added- the right owner.

Andreas Cornelius, held up by Tan as the downfall of Mackay and Moody’s reign was sold in the January window for what Cardiff claim was in excess of a £8.5million loss. The promising Zaha and Fabio were brought in from Manchester United, Kenwyne Jones in a swap deal with the recently arrived Odemwingie and three Norwegians. The transfers, aside from Mats Moller Daehli, have made no positive impact; in fact Fabio seems to be on a mission to single-handedly sink them. They will go down this year, not because of Malkay, whose record is still better than Solskjaer’s 0.62 points per game, not even because of Solskjaer who although he still seems unaware of his first choice line-up or formation is at least willing to try and resolve it. The team will go down because the players, coaching staff and even the fans don’t want to be part of Tan’s project. He has no idea of the embarrassment he forces upon them, or perhaps he doesn’t care. Any victory Tan will proclaim as down to his approach, which will only fuel his fire further.

So what will next year bring? It depends on how big an explosion Tan creates. There are players who will be in demand; Mutch, Taylor, Noone, Wittingham, Caulker, Daehli and Medel will receive offers but Medel is the only definite to move on. If Cardiff can keep the bulk of these players and Solskjaer, whilst keeping Tan distracted on one of his other businesses there is the possibility that they could return, but we know as we read this that none of it will happen. Tan will interfere, sack Solskjaer and the better players will scuttle away as fast as they can. Unfortunately the supporters aren’t so lucky, all they can do is wait until Tan, like all petulant children, gets bored and finds a new toy.

The five teams (Birmingham achieved it twice) that have returned immediately to the Premier League in the last ten years mostly had the same plan; reduce the wage bill of the Mark Vidukas, Kieron Dyers and Matt Upsons (twice) of the world and hold on to the talented youngsters & those who are ambitious and hardworking enough to make the return. The Championship is a difficult league, a marathon where a winning streak of a few games is enough to elevate you several positions. The money will be helpful but as many clubs have found does not bring success on its own. This is the perfect opportunity for these three clubs to streamline their playing staff, cut the wages of those who do not understand what it means to wear their shirt and to promote those players deemed too inexperienced for this year’s Premier League campaign. Most importantly they must show unity, everyone pulling in the same direction. A slight exception would be 2009/10’s Newcastle United managed under Chris Hughton at the height of Mike Ashley’s poorly advised antics but that success was due to the players performing to spite him; a different form of unity that  perhaps Cardiff can hope to emulate. Each of these teams, no matter how badly they have appeared this season, have a chance to return. Relegation need not be a negative, as Epictetus the Greek philosopher once said ‘It’s not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters.’ I wish them all the best.